1 posts

·Investment·Crypto

Why the 2026 US midterm elections are important for Crypto

Full page →
StocksMidterm ElectionsTrumpUS StocksBitcoinCryptocurrencyBitcoin OutlookCryptoUS Midterm ElectionsDigital AssetsCrypto Stocks

The U.S. midterm election on November 3, 2026 (all 435 seats in the House of Representatives + 35 seats in the Senate) is the midterm evaluation of Trump's second year in office and a watershed moment for the final passage of the CLARITY Act (Market Structure Act).

Following the GENIUS Act (Stablecoin Act) passed in July of last year, the CLARITY Act is a bill that ends the jurisdictional dispute between the SEC and CFTC and clearly classifies digital assets as securities/products, but it requires 60 Senate votes, so a simple majority is not enough. The White House (digital asset advisor Patrick Witt) is pressing for passage on July 4th, and if this schedule is followed, the first round will be completed before the election, and the election results will determine the momentum for enforcement and subsequent legislation.

The prediction market currently sees a 60% chance of maintaining the Republican Party in the Senate and an 83% chance of reclaiming the House of Representatives from the Democratic Party. However, Crypto itself is at the bottom of the rankings of voter interest (1% selected as top issue), so the effect of replacing individual lawmakers is more important than the “overall defeat of Crypto.”

Crypto policy track record of the Trump administration (mid-term review of the second year in office)

사진출처: 뉴욕타임즈

There are quite a few things that have already been completed.

① GENIUS Act (Stablecoin Regulation) Signed into effect on July 18, 2025

② The abolition of SAB 121 (→ SAB 122) allows commercial banks to enter crypto custody.

③ Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Executive Order signed on March 6, 2025 (US federal government holds approximately 328,000 BTC, “do not sell” principle).

What's going on

① CLARITY Act (Goal of passing the House of Representatives on July 4 → Senate)

② BITCOIN Act (proposed by Senator Lummis, expected to begin BTC purchases by the Treasury in 4Q 2026 if passed)

③ GENIUS follow-up rulemaking by the Ministry of Finance, OCC, and FDIC (due in July 2026)

Fairshake PAC: Super variable on the electoral landscape

Crypto industry super PAC Fairshake holds $193 billion in assets (major sponsors include Coinbase, a16z, Ripple, Jump, and Uniswap).

We have already made significant progress in the 2026 primaries. In Texas' 8th district, Jessica Steinmann won a landslide victory of 70% in the Republican primary, Andy Barr (McConnell's successor) won 60%+ in Kentucky, and a structure was created in Texas where anti-crypto representative Al Green was pursued by pro-blockchain Christian Menefee.

The targets are Ohio, Texas, Florida + New York, and the target is a two-pronged operation: support for pro-Crypto candidates and defeating anti-Crypto lawmakers.

Status of each item (as of May 2026)

Bitcoin spot: approximately $77,350 as of May 25 (year-to-date range). Touched $81K in early May → fell due to ETF fund outflow ($1.55B) for 6 consecutive days in mid-May. IBIT alone AUM exceeds $63B+, and the entire US BTC ETF exceeds $100B.

MSTR (Strategy) — Stock price approximately $164-172, YTD +12.5%, market cap approximately $57.8 billion. Holds 843,700 BTC (average acquisition price $75,700, total $63.87 billion). Purchased an additional 535 BTC on May 11, and 249,000 BTC ($2.01B, average price $80,985) the previous week. Representative of a leveraged beta stock whose stock price reacts ~2% to a 1% change in BTC.

COIN (Coinbase) — Exchange and custody profits are the key. Owns 1,395 BTC (acquisition price $119 million). Most directly benefited from passage of the CLARITY Act (clarification of exchange licenses and market structure). As Fairshake is a major sponsor, it has the greatest political exposure.

MARA Holdings — America's largest publicly traded mining company. Energization hash rate 72.2 EH/s (1Q 2026), BTC direct holding strategy in parallel. JPMorgan lowers target in May reset.

CLSK (CleanSpark) — Low-cost power in Georgia and Wyoming, focused on self-mining. JPMorgan revised upward (evaluation of efficiency superiority over MARA·RIOT). Hashrate ~45.6 EH/s.

RIOT Platforms — Rockdale, Texas large single site, ERCOT power curtaintail revenue special variable. Hash rate 35.4 EH/s.

Short-term inflection point schedule (next 6 months)

  • Around July 4th — Target date for House passage of the CLARITY Act.
  • July 18 — One year since the GENIUS Act went into effect, Treasury and OCC follow-up rules are due.
  • Q3 - Strategic Bitcoin Reserve operational details announced (White House advisory for “next few weeks”).
  • September-October — Intensive shipment of Fairshake advertisements + finalist candidates confirmed. November 3 — Midterm elections.
  • Q4 — Treasury's first official BTC purchase (estimated) upon passage of the BITCOIN Act.

This midterm is “a time when crypto policy momentum is tested simultaneously on three axes: legislation (CLARITY), finance (Strategic Reserve), and politics (Fairshake).” COIN has the highest policy sensitivity, MSTR ranks first in BTC price leverage, and miners operate on the triple variables of BTC price + power cost + whether or not the Strategic Reserve is in full swing.

Scenario B (Republican Senate, Democratic House) is the consensus, and in this case, the baseline is a gradual upward trend centered on enforcement decrees from the end of the year to 2027 rather than a rapid increase.

Sources:

Comments

No comments yet. Be the first!