Where Are Home Prices Now? Mid-2026 Korean Real Estate Check-In

The saying “If interest rates are high, house prices fall” does not apply well in Korea these days. As the first half of 2026 passes, I briefly summarized where our real estate market is.

Seoul has not cooled down

In 2025, apartment prices in Seoul rose by about 9%. It was the largest increase since 2013, exceeding the increase in 2018. In particular, the average sale price of the national flats (exclusive 84㎡) in Gangnam's 3 districts is close to 2.6 billion won, and the so-called 'Mayongseong' in Mapo, Yongsan, and Seongdong has also reached the 1.7 billion won range.

The problem is that 'only the places that go up go up.' Even within Seoul, the distance between popular and unpopular areas is becoming increasingly distant.

The government continued to apply the brakes, but the loan threshold was steadily raised to cover household debt. As 'Stress DSR Stage 3' was applied to the metropolitan area in earnest from July 2025, the amount of money that could be borrowed decreased, and the risk weight applied by banks to home mortgage loans also increased. In the end, the regulations prevented 'people who need to borrow money', but did not prevent 'people who do not need to borrow'. So the polarization has actually become clearer.

So what will happen this year?

The outlook is slightly different for each institution, but the direction is generally 'rising in the metropolitan area and stopping in the regional areas.' The Housing Industry Research Institute predicted that Seoul will rise by about 4% this year, the metropolitan area will rise by 2%, and the provinces will remain almost the same (0%). The Construction Industry Research Institute also predicted an increase of around 2% in the metropolitan area.

To summarize, there are two real keys to moving the market rather than interest rates. How much new supply, and How much of the policy is actually implemented.

The current market is not a market where the whole country is rising, but a market where only the areas that are rising are rising. It is more important to look at the supply and demand of 'the area as I see it' than the average number.

※ This article is a market summary for informational purposes and does not recommend the buying or selling of specific areas or properties.